Canada to see modest ad spend growth over next three years: report

ZenithOptimedia's ad expenditure forecast projects that digital spending will overtake TV spending by 2014, with mobile and video leading the way.
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ZenithOptimedia released the full results of its latest ad spend report yesterday. While the initial report unveiled at Cannes earlier this week suggested a gloomy global forecast, Canada is expected to see moderate growth in advertising expenditures for the next three years.

Despite a slow start to 2013, the report projects that total ad expenditures for the year will grow 2.7% to $11.5 billion. ZenithOptimedia predicts that most of this growth will come in the second half of 2013, and that this momentum will carry into the next two years. All in all, total ad expenditures are expected to grow 4.3% to $12 billion in 2014, and 4.5% to $12.6 billion in 2015.

This growth will see Canada climb to eighth on the list of the top 10 ad markets by 2015, placing it behind countries like the US, Japan and the UK.

The report suggests that digital advertising will be the biggest driver of growth, due in large part to increased investments in video and mobile.

According to the report, digital ad expenditures will see double digit gains over each of the next three years, drawing almost even with TV in 2013 and likely overtaking it in 2014. In 2013, internet spending is expected to grow 13.9% to $3.43 billion. Growth will remain constant at 13.8% over the next two years, with digital ad expenditures reaching $4.4 billion by 2015.

TV, meanwhile, will see a slight decline of 1.4%, with expenditures dipping to $3.44 billion in 2013. ZenithOptimedia projects that spending will rebound modestly in 2014, reaching $3.5 billion, and remain unchanged in 2015.

Due to increased migration to digital, the report forecasts a 10% dip in overall print ad expenditures over the next three years. Newspapers will bear the brunt of this, with spending dropping 4.4% to $1.9 billion in 2013. Spending will drop 3.2% over the next two years, reaching $1.8 billion in 2015.

Magazines are expected to see similar declines over the next two years, with expenditures dropping to $565 million in 2014 before rebounding 1% to $571 million in 2015.

The report suggests that radio can expect to see modest growth over the next three years, driven in large part by retail advertisers. Spending is projected to rise 1.6% in to $1.63 billion in 2013, followed by an increase to $1.67 billion in 2014. Growth will continue in 2015, with radio expenditures reaching $1.7 billion.

Rounding out the report, OOH is expected see growth of 2.1% per year between 2013 and 2015. Spending will rise 1.7% to $492 million in 2013, and is expected to reach $515 million by 2015.