Magna, Zenith downgrade global ad forecasts

Both companies have downgraded their ad revenue forecasts for 2015, with Magna predicting digital will overtake TV globally by 2018.

Two ad forecasts releases have downgraded estimates for the coming year, with Magna Global and ZenithOptimedia both issuing new reports today.

The lack of major events like the Olympics, the U.S. election and the FIFA Men’s World Cup in 2015, are the leading factors in Magna Global downgrading its global ad forecast for the year. In addition to that, ZenithOptimedia is also citing a weak economy in Brazil and Latin America, due to low oil prices, for its downgraded forecast.

ZenithOptimedia has dropped its forecast to 4.2% for 2015, or $531 billion, down from 4.4% from its March forecast.

Magna is forecasting lower global ad revenue, dropping its forecast to 3.9% for the year, from 4.8%, which was forecast in Dec. 2014. The decline represents a slowdown from the 4.9% growth seen in 2014. Overall, global advertising spend is forecasted to reach $513 billion this year.

Canadian ad revenue is predicted to grow by 2.7% this year, a jump of 1.2% over 2014 numbers.

TV advertising in the country dropped by 3.1% in 2014, despite the driver of the Winter Olympics. That trend is expected to continue in 2015, with a predicted drop of 2.2%.

Magna is predicting that digital will grow by 15% in 2015, reaching $4.6 billion and a market share of 35%.

Globally, digital media is expected to grow by double-digits this year, jumping a forecasted 16% to $149 billion globally. That increase is largely driven by mobile advertising, which is expected to grow by 53% to reach $50 billion, video formats, which are expected to grow by 38% or $15.4 billion and social formats, which are forecasted to jump by 38% or $22.7 billion in 2015. Digital ad revenues will reach 31% of market share this year. Mobile advertising currently accounts for 30% of total digital advertising, and will reach 55% by 2019.


In 2014, digital media was already tops in 13 of the 73 countries measured by Magna, including Canada. Based on the company’s long-term forecast, digital media ad spend is expected to catch-up with TV in 2018, when it will reach 38% ad share against TV’s 37.7% share. That’s one year earlier that previously forecast.

ZenithOptimedia is also predicting that digital media will grow by 15% per year between 2014 and 2017.

Magna is predicting that Canadian newspaper ad revenue is predicted to drop by 5% in 2015, while magazine ad sales will dip by 7%. Radio ads are expected to slide by 2%.

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