The latest analysis by WARC predicts that global ad spending will top $1 trillion USD for the first time in 2024, but it will be five tech companies that continue to dominate the market.
In Canada, WARC expects total media spending to reach $20.35 billion by the end of 2023, up from $19.3 million in 2022. By 2024, Canadian ad spending is forecast to be $21.98 billion.
Amidst that, WARC is predicting that Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, ByteDance (owner of TikTok) and Meta will collectively grow ad revenue on their platforms by 9.1% this year, reaching a 50.7% share of total spending globally. WARC expects the five companies to further grow ad revenues by 10.7% next year, reaching 51.9% of total spending. In that same period, the combined spending at all other media owners is expected to be flat.
A big part of that is due to the fact that the channels WARC expects to be most popular through 2024 are also ones where those companies have dominant market share.
WARC predicts that social will grow by 11.5% this year and 12.8% in 2024, the fastest-growing channel and the second-largest overall. Meta has a 64.4% share of spending here, with Bytedance following at a 17.6% share.
Search spending will grow by 6.1% this year and 9.2% next year, helping it maintain its spot as the largest advertising channel by spending. Google will continue to dominate the space with an 83.1% share globally. Online display, where Google also has significant market share, is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2023 and accelerate to 9% next year.
Retail media’s growth with be 10.2% this year and 10.5% next year, being the fourth-largest channel by the end of 2024. Amazon will hold a 37.2% share, though WARC predicts that Alibaba – currently the market leader in China – will face increased competition from a growing number of local competitors.
Connected TV is also expected to grow rapidly at 11.4% this year and 12.1% in 2024, though it will still make up only 3.2% of total global ad spending.
Though WARC expects linear TV spending to dip by 5.4% this year, that would still make it the third-largest advertising channel globally. WARC is also forecasting that linear TV spending will climb back up 3.5% next year, driven by election ad spending in several markets, as well as major sporting events like the Olympics.
Out-of-home is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2023 and 7.3% in 2024. Total audio spending is expected to be flat this year as gains in online audio will not be enough to offset losses in traditional radio, though both formats are expected to grow next year, leading to 3.3% total growth. Print ads are expected to dip by a further 5.1% this year, though the decline is expected to slow at both newspapers and magazines in 2024.
Looking at spending by industry, financial services (11.5%), technology (11.3%) and health (11.0%) are forecast to be the fastest-growing consumer marketing sectors next year, outside of political ads. Spending on ads by retailers is expected to be flat in 2024, though WARC still predicts it will still have the largest share of all industries.
