Analysis: Media buyers weigh in on fall TV primetime winners: Monday nights

The verdict is in. Media in Canada nabbed gab time with media buyers to ask: Which shows do you predict will net the most eyeballs this fall? This is the first of a series that will share broadcast pundits' opinions on who's in, who's out and who doesn't stand a chance during the most coveted - and competitive -- weeknight timeslots of 8-10 p.m. Go to www.mediaincanada.com and click on 'TV Programming Grids' for visual aids.

Sherry O'Neill, managing director, broadcast at OMD Toronto, says: 'I think it's a good night for Global and CH. Fathom is interesting though I don't like Kitchen Confidential. Everyone here loved Prison Break but we think that the flow should be more like Fathom (on CH) and then Prison Break(on Global). After that, (at 10 p.m.), it's definitely CSI: Miami.'
By Pia Musngi
June 30, 2005

The verdict is in. Media in Canada nabbed gab time with media buyers to ask: Which shows do you predict will net the most eyeballs this fall? This is the first of a series that will share broadcast pundits’ opinions on who’s in, who’s out and who doesn’t stand a chance during the most coveted — and competitive — weeknight timeslots of 8-10 p.m. Go to www.mediaincanada.com and click on ‘TV Programming Grids’ for visual aids.

Sherry O’Neill, managing director, broadcast at OMD Toronto, says: ‘I think it’s a good night for Global and CH. Fathom is interesting though I don’t like Kitchen Confidential. Everyone here loved Prison Break but we think that the flow should be more like Fathom (on CH) and then Prison Break(on Global). After that, (at 10 p.m.), it’s definitely CSI: Miami.’

Helena Shelton, VP of broadcast operations at Toronto’s The Media Company says that generally most of the fall shows are ‘pretty good. I think that Corner Gas and Arrested Development will be neck and neck at 8. I liked Kitchen Confidential so it’s my pick for 8:30. At 9 p.m., it’s Medium and 10 p.m. belongs to CSI: Miami. Both are proven performers.’

According to OMD Vancouver’s media strategy manager Sheila Malanchuk, eyeballs are netted dependent on the region. ‘Eight p.m. is not eventful,’ she says. ‘Arrested Development may increase but not by much. Corner Gas has limited viewership out west but it’s huge in Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Prairies where there’s a point of resonance for viewers there.’

‘At 8:30 p.m. Kitchen Confidential has a good lead-in with Arrested. It’s an interesting pairing but the network will need to let people know about the time slot. I think Kitchen Confidential is promising though there are two demos at work here with Degrassi skewing younger.’ Malanchuk also believes that Prison Break has a lot of potential because of its strong pilot ‘though it would be interesting to see how they can keep it going. It got a lot of good reviews in the press.’ She admits, however, that Medium is a strong show with a growing fan base and, if simulcast, the result will be a toss-up at 9 p.m.

Like Shelton and O’Neil, Malanchuk agrees that 10 p.m. is no contest for CSI: Miami. She adds: ‘ReGenesis is the weaker of the sci-fi bunch this fall.’

So why would a network place newbie ReGenesis against the heavyweight CSI?

For Barb Williams, SVP of programming and production at CanWest MediaWorks, the decision was easy. ‘We had a choice for 10 and we put ReGenesis there because it’s a Canadian show so we put it where we thought it would make the most sense,’ she explains. ‘Think about it: Prison Break is an action drama with a male skew and ReGenesis is an action drama with a male skew. It gets a huge lead-in with Prison Break. We wanted to give it a good head start in finding an audience.’

Look for the fall Tuesday night lineup roundup in next Thursday’s MIC.