Analysis: Media buyers weigh in on fall TV primetime winners: Tuesday nights

This is the second in a series (see part one in MIC June 30, 2005) that asks broadcast pundits' opinions on who's in, who's out and who doesn't stand a chance during the most coveted -- and competitive -- weeknight timeslots of 8-10 p.m. Go to www.mediaincanada.com and click on 'TV Programming Grids' for visual aids.

'Close to Home (CTV) is very female, very Judging Amy' says Sheila Malanchuk, media strategy manager at OMD Vancouver about the 8 p.m. contenders. 'Then there's Bones (Global) which is more forensic drama. With David Boreanaz, it skews female. I think Bones has potential but the pilot could be better. Either of them are a toss up. And when American Idol comes in (on CTV mid-season), it will be a sweep.'

For the 9 p.m. timeslot, Malanchuk is more decisive. 'The Amazing Race (CTV) will trump (Global's) House although the House audience is growing. (CBC's) DaVinci's City Hall has its loyal audience but the numbers are not quite there. Supernatural (on Citytv) is another one of those for the sci-fi audience but it won't even come close to Race's numbers.' And at 10 p.m. she says: '(CTV's)Law and Order: SVU though Gilmore Girls (on Global) has its loyal audience. Also I don't really think that Wanted (Citytv) will last that long.'
By Pia Musngi
July 7, 2005

This is the second in a series (see part one in MIC June 30, 2005) that asks broadcast pundits’ opinions on who’s in, who’s out and who doesn’t stand a chance during the most coveted — and competitive — weeknight timeslots of 8-10 p.m. Go to www.mediaincanada.com and click on ‘TV Programming Grids’ for visual aids.

‘Close to Home (CTV) is very female, very Judging Amy‘ says Sheila Malanchuk, media strategy manager at OMD Vancouver about the 8 p.m. contenders. ‘Then there’s Bones (Global) which is more forensic drama. With David Boreanaz, it skews female. I think Bones has potential but the pilot could be better. Either of them are a toss up. And when American Idol comes in (on CTV mid-season), it will be a sweep.’

For the 9 p.m. timeslot, Malanchuk is more decisive. ‘The Amazing Race (CTV) will trump (Global’s) House although the House audience is growing. (CBC’s) DaVinci’s City Hall has its loyal audience but the numbers are not quite there. Supernatural (on Citytv) is another one of those for the sci-fi audience but it won’t even come close to Race‘s numbers.’ And at 10 p.m. she says: ‘(CTV’s)Law and Order: SVU though Gilmore Girls (on Global) has its loyal audience. Also I don’t really think that Wanted (Citytv) will last that long.’

‘I heard Bones is a disappointment,’ says Sherry O’Neil, managing director, broadcast at OMD Toronto. ‘In terms of Close to Home, everyone who sees it, loves it. And Amazing Race is a good lead-in for that. We loved House; it’s doing great. CH has My Name is Earl at 9 p.m. and this is a tough time block for Earl. Amazing Race should win. And at 10, Boston Legal. We like it. It has a cult following but it does split eyeballs 50-50 with Law and Order.’

For Doner Canada’s Toronto-based SVP/media director Theresa Treutler, when the choice is between Close to Home and Bones, ‘it’s Bruckheimer all the way. Close to Home has everything going for it. It’s engaging, emotionally appealing and (Canuck lead actress) Jennifer Finnegan is fantastic. The show would fare better to run later though, as I think it would have a higher audience because of its mature subject matter. But it’s impossible for CTV to simulcast at 10 (as in the U.S.) because CTV has Law and Order simulcasting at 10. Why would they tamper with that success? That decision makes sense.’

Her 9 p.m. prediction? ‘No one outperforms Amazing Race. Every time it comes back, the audiences get bigger. House is picking up but it’s still Race. And it will benefit from a good lead-in with Close to Home. I think Earl is a good property. The Earl, then Office and into Boston Legal (at 10 p.m.) lineup is a good one for CH. They’ll get their niche.’

At 10, Treutler predicts that Law and Order will continue to do well.

‘All in all, it’s a CTV night,’ she opines.

Look for the fall Wednesday night lineup roundup in next Thursday’s MIC.