So far only three new fall shows on the US nets look like they’ve got what it takes to make it to season two, according to Shari Anne Brill, VP/director of programming for Carat USA. The agency makes this prediction in its annual Primetime Preview, an early assessment of the new program offerings.
The three shows (out of approximately 40) that get the thumbs-up are The Class (CBS/CTV), a half-hour comedy; Shark (CBS/Global), an hour-long legal drama; and half-hour comedy ‘Til Death (Fox/CH).
Only 10 of last year’s 31 entries from all the networks will return this fall and ABC has not renewed any of its 2005/06 starters.
Scheduling of the shows is one of the most important criteria for success or failure. Since not all U.S. pickups are simulcast in Canada with the originating stations, shows may not have the same ratings results here as south of the border. That means even the most successful shows could disappear if they aren’t successful on the U.S. schedule.
Looking at Carat’s first pick, The Class, CBS has slated it for Monday evenings at 8:30 p.m., sandwiched between two of its strong properties, How I Met Your Mother and Two and a Half Men. In Canada, CTV is simulcasting the show with CBS but it is up against formidable competition: Prison Break from 8 to 9 p.m. on Global and Deal or No Deal in that same hour on CH.
Shark, a legal drama starring James Woods and Jeri Ryan, seems to be scheduled for success in both countries. CBS has it slated for 10 p.m. on Thursday where Carat predicts it will devour long-running hospital drama ER on NBC. The third show in that slot is Six Degrees on ABC.
The major scheduling drama of the season is in the previous hour, where returning shows Grey’s Anatomy (ABC/CTV), CSI (CBS/CTV), Deal or No Deal (NBC/Global), The OC (Fox/CTV), and Supernatural (CW/CHUM) are facing off. Carat expects Grey’s Anatomy to win the 9 p.m. timeslot but says CBS with Survivor at 8 p.m., followed by CSI and Shark will be the night’s ratings winner. The third new show that Carat expects to be a success, ‘Til Death is a comedy starring Brad Garrett (Everybody Loves Raymond) and Joely Fisher (Desperate Housewives). It will air at 8 p.m. on Fox while CanWest’s CH network will show it in pre-release Wednesdays at 8 p.m.
The picture for Thursday night in Canada is a slightly different one involving some schedule juggling by CTV and Global. At 10 p.m. Shark on Global and ER on CTV will be going head-to-head but Six Degrees, also a Global property, is being shown in pre-release Wednesdays at 9 p.m. On Global, Survivor and Deal or No Deal will lead into Shark whereas CTV is pre-releasing The OC at 7 p.m. and Grey’s Anatomy at 8 p.m. It has left CSI at 9 p.m.
Some of the program trends noted by Carat for this fall include a continuance of year-round scheduling with time-period sharing and staggered launches. In addition, Carat says U.S. broadcasters have slated the fewest comedies in network history but added to a new branch of drama dubbed serialized storytelling – based on the success of 24 and Prison Break – with four new shows: Big Day (ABC/CH), Let’s Rob… (ABC/CTV), Kidnapped (NBC/Global), and Vanished (Fox/Global).
