Carat: A handful of keepers in the fall TV grab bag

Carat Canada has picked its favourites from the roster of new U.S. shows on the fall TV sked - and it's a very short list. Caroline Gianias, SVP and GM of Carat Toronto, has earmarked only six shows as winners: Shark (Global), The Nine (CTV), Traveler (mid-season launch on CTV), Justice, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip (CTV) and Smith (CTV).

This seems about right, considering that just 10 of the 31 U.S. shows picked up by Canadian broadcasters last season are returning for a second go-round. Gianias says Canadian networks are at the mercy of the likes and dislikes of the American viewing public. Once again this year, broadcasters will continue to manipulate their schedules as they respond to the changes in the U.S., in an attempt to maintain as much simulcast programming as possible.
By Patti Summerfield
August 24, 2006

Carat Canada has picked its favourites from the roster of new U.S. shows on the fall TV sked – and it’s a very short list. Caroline Gianias, SVP and GM of Carat Toronto, has earmarked only six shows as winners: Shark (Global), The Nine (CTV), Traveler (mid-season launch on CTV), Justice, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip (CTV) and Smith (CTV).

This seems about right, considering that just 10 of the 31 U.S. shows picked up by Canadian broadcasters last season are returning for a second go-round. Gianias says Canadian networks are at the mercy of the likes and dislikes of the American viewing public. Once again this year, broadcasters will continue to manipulate their schedules as they respond to the changes in the U.S., in an attempt to maintain as much simulcast programming as possible.

‘Given the simulcasting challenges facing the Canadian market, anticipate changes coming to Canadian schedules. The fight will be to keep viewers watching Canadian broadcasts instead of US feeds,’ she explains. ‘Canadian broadcasters have already discounted for non-simulcast programming. However, if audiences dwindle, advertising rates will need to reflect this. Given the steep price paid for U.S. shows, this isn’t something broadcasters in Canada can afford.’

Gianias says this simulcast, pre- and post-release conundrum really makes or breaks a show in Canada. A good time slot can make something a hit, but if it isn’t as lucky in the U.S., the show will disappear anyway. How is this scheduling challenge going to be met in Canada this season? At CTV, The Nine, 30 Rock (with Alec Baldwin) and Knights of Prosperity (previously called Let’s Rob) will be seen in post-release as part of the Saturday night schedule. Since Saturday night is typically a wasteland, it’s unknown whether this placement will have a favourable outcome.

CTV will be pre-releasing Smith, Criminal Minds, The OC and Grey’s Anatomy. Gianias says this scheduling can also be a gamble – as seen this spring when audience for Lost fell off considerably when pre-released at 7 p.m. because of the American Idol simulcast.

CanWest will also face some simulcast issues this season, despite being able to share between CH and Global networks. The broadcaster also has a greater reliance on the fickle U.S. audience to keep its programming on the air, says Gianias. Thursday night will be a battleground again this year and, she says, it could be a bloodbath with Survivor going head-to-head with CTV’s Grey’s Anatomy.

Of the 57 new series introduced by American networks during the 2005-06 season, only 15 are back. Carat USA is predicting that at least one-third of this year’s new crop will disappear by January, paving the way for mid-season entries.

Shari Anne Brill, VP director of programming for Carat USA, has broken her assessment of the fall schedule in that country into three categories:

* America’s Most Wanted: These are the shows with a winning concept, strong writing and likeable characters, in addition to an ideal timeslot. This category includes ‘Til Death (Fox/CH), The Nine (Fox/CTV), The Class (Fox/CTV), Shark (Fox/Global), 30 Rock (Fox/CTV), The Game (CW) and Standofff (Fox/Global).

* The Contenders: These shows may have a good concept but poor schedule placement, poor concept but great placement, or a brilliant concept and niche appeal. She puts Studio 60 in the latter category because it will most likely appeal to ‘affluent and educated viewers who are fans of the medium’s process.’

On this list are: Ugly Betty (ABC/CityTV), Help Me Help You (ABC/CH), Big Day (ABC/CH), Smith (CBS/CTV), Studio 60 (NBC/CTV), Kidnapped (NBC/Global), Vanished (Fox/Global), Happy Hour (Fox/CTV) and Runaway (CW/CH).

* The Biggest Losers:

Shows that have a weak concept, poor writing, unappealing characters, or poor scheduling. Early warning signs are program retooling prior to the start of the season. One example is Brothers & Sisters (ABC/Global), which Brill says not only has poorly conceived characters but three of the main actors have already been replaced. Others branded with the big L are: Men in Trees (ABC/CityTV), 6 Degrees (ABC/Global), Knights of Prosperity (ABC/CTV), Jericho (CBS/CityTV), 20 Good Years (NBC/CTV), Notes from the Underbelly (ABC) and Justice (Fox/CTV).