In its just-released ‘What’s Up for 2008’ report, Toronto-based M2 Universal makes the following informed predictions:
Digital:
▪ It’ll be a watershed year for digital media as it achieves mainstream status and double-digit growth. Almost everything will have a digital extension.
▪ Search and social media will dominate the online media space.
CRTC:
▪ BDU/fee-for-carriage hearings in April could have a fundamental impact on the long-term structure of the TV landscape.
▪ Media ownership limits announced in January will put a huge brake on future media mergers in TV, radio and newspapers.
TV:
▪ The impact of the 3½-month Hollywood writers’ strike will extend into the 2008/09 conventional program schedule and beyond.
▪ There will be long-term audience decline, fragmentation and erosion in viewership to traditionally strong conventional program performers, and continued softening for conventional TV revenue and viewership.
Radio:
▪ The viability of satellite radio as a commercial medium in Canada will stall in 2008.
▪ The short-term impact of Astral and CTVglobemedia ownership changes will be negligible, but a long-term impact on pricing and structure of private radio in Canada will be felt by 2010.
Mobile:
▪ Despite the hype, the mobile media industry in Canada will continue to struggle until Canadian carriers adopt flat-rate data plans similar to those of their US counterparts.
Print:
▪ The Toronto Star‘s move to modular and sectional pricing will be adopted beyond Toronto by end of year; if not, they won’t survive as a currency standard, regardless of the paper’s importance.
▪ Will Quebecor retreat from the English Canada newspaper market?
▪ How many more paid dailies will suffer the same fate as the Halifax Daily News, which folded on Valentine’s Day, when parent Transcontinental added a Halifax edition of the free commuter daily Metro?
▪ A few paid dailies will adopt the free commuter papers distribution model on a narrow-cast neighbourhood or subscriber basis by Q4.
Research:
▪ There will be a push to accelerate PPM rollout to TV beyond Quebec and to radio by early 2009.
▪ Newspaper, magazine and out-of-home will be pressured to move their audience research closer to the higher frequency standards set by electronic and digital media.
Out-of-home:
▪ Watch for a digital signage explosion, from in-store to mall concourses to expressways. A new look for Toronto street furniture from Astral will be unveiled by mid-year. Legal challenges from OOH companies and citizens to existing OOH structures and municipal bylaws will heat up, especially in the GTA and GVA.
US economy:
▪ A negative impact of the US recession on traditional Canadian media (newsprint, magazines and conventional TV) will be felt, especially in central Canada.
