Magna’s bi-annual Global Advertising Forecast says Canada’s ad sales in 2022 will hit $20.4 billion, which represents 5.6% growth from 2021 but is 1.5% below Magna’s June forecast.

It is also a big slowdown from the record growth of 27% in 2021, though that figure is largely due to a favourable comparison to the lagging numbers of 2020. Canada will also end this year as the eighth largest advertising market in the world.

Digital’s growth is slowing in Canada but will still account for 75% of total ad sales this year, a gain of 8% to $15 billion. Social ad sales were most impacted by the slowdown in digital advertising and gained only 1% in 2022. Search – which was less impacted by Apple’s recent privacy changes – grew by 13% and digital video increased 11%.

Television advertising sales account for 15% of the 2022 advertising market, up roughly 1% to $2.9 billion. The growth is attributed to events including the Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup, and the rise of emerging verticals such as cryptocurrencies and sports betting. These events helped offset a comparison to advertising around the Summer Olympic games and federal elections held last year.

Domestic sports are helping too, with an NHL season that saw the full return of fans to arenas. The NFL is also popular in Canada, despite the lack of Canadian teams in the league: Super Bowl LVI was the most watched program in Canada in the first quarter of 2022.

Rounding out the growth in Canada’s advertising market in 2022 are radio ad sales, which gained 3% to $1.2 billion, and OOH , which increased +9% to $500 million. Print sales, on the other hand, fell 24% to $800 million.

Looking ahead to 2023, Magna forecasts that Canada’s ad market will grow 4.3% to $21.3 billion, a slight reduction from the 4.5% expected by the agency in June, and slower than the 5.6% growth rate in 2022. The market in 2023 will be influenced by a deteriorating economy and the lack of big cyclical events that helped boost sales in both 2021 and 2022. The economic outlook for 2023 was essentially cut in half by the IMF in the fall, from 2.8% to 1.5%. Inflation also remains high at 6.9%, though it is expected to slow in 2023 to 4.2%, though consumer confidence remains low due to the fact that shrinking inflation is often the result of a recession.

Magna predicts that digital Canadian advertising sales will grow again in 2023 by 7%. Search sales will rise by 8%, while social media will accelerate to 6%. Digital video sales will gain 9%, boosted by the launch of ad supported tiers of Netflix and Disney+. Digital media CPM inflation will average 7% in 2023.

Television sales are expected to fall by 2% in 2023 due in part to ratings erosion and fewer big ratings events. Radio advertising sales are expected to drop by 4%, and print ad sales will fall a further 14%. OOH sales will continue to recover from pandemic lows and grow by 6%.

Next year, a number of verticals are expected by Magna to increase their spending. Travel (17%), and betting (13%) are expected to rise by double digits. Automotive and pharmaceuticals are both expected to increase by 9%, while technology will rise 7%.

Over the next five years, Magna predicts Canadian advertising sales will average 4% growth, ending 2027 at $25 billion. Digital advertising sales will average 6% growth during that time, while linear TV sales will drop an average 4%. Radio sales will fall an average of 5% and print by 12%, while OOH will gain 7%.