Convergence Research has released its two 2023 Couch Potato Reports – The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: OTT and TV and The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: Bundling, TV, Internet, Telephone, Wireless. The annual series was launched in 2003.
Based on analysis of over 50 OTT services (over 35 providers), led by Netflix, Convergence estimates that 2022 Canadian OTT access revenue grew 23% to $3.3 billion and forecasts 18% growth this year. Rising Canadian OTT access revenue will continue to mostly benefit non-Canadian players. Canada is increasingly impacted by global, mainly U.S. programmers and independent OTT providers.
The report estimates that 2022 Canadian cable, satellite and telco TV access revenue declined by 4% to $7.5 billion and forecasts a 3% per annum decline through 2025. Last year saw a decline of 2% of Canadian TV subscribers and an average 3% yearly decline is expected from 2023 to 2025.
Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not seeing as steep a rate of decline as the U.S., but this could change in the medium term, depending on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada. As the Canadian population increases, Convergence Research believes it will have a positive impact on limiting TV subscriber losses and increasing broadband subscriber gains.
In last year’s Canadian Cord Cutter/Never Household Model, Convergence estimated that 6.3 million or 40% of Canadian households did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite, or telco TV access provider. That is projected to rise to 48% by the end of 2025.
For Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions, 2019 to 2022 were banner years with 2008 and the years prior being the last time Canada saw better additions. Convergence forecasts that 2023 to 2025 will continue to see robust broadband subscriber additions as well.
The Convergence Research reports contain detailed analysis of offers (including prices and programming), deals and rights, strategy, subscriber and financial performance metrics (including forecasts) by company & market. In addition to Convergence analysis, sources include company interviews, annual or quarterly reports & presentations, CRTC and Statistics Canada.
