The Convergence Research Group has released its 2024 Couch Potato Reports, an annual series since 2003. The report covers OTT, TV and the bundling of services in the Canadian and U.S. markets. Convergence estimates that in 2023, Canadian OTT subscription revenue grew 14% to $3.73 billion. It is forecast to grow another 14% this year to $4.24 billion, and double-digit growth rates are expected to continue at least through 2026. The findings are based on analysis of more than 55 OTT services from over 35 providers, led by Netflix. All dollar amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not experiencing as steep a rate of decline as the U.S. but this could change, depending on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada. Canadian population and immigration increases are also having and will have a positive impact on limiting TV subscriber losses and maintaining broadband and wireless gains.

Canadian OTT household penetration, subscriptions per household, and net OTT subscriptions are increasing at more a moderate annual rate. Based on the 10 largest OTT providers, the average Canadian price increase was 12% in 2022 and 2023 and 2024 is expected to be similar. That being said, OTT offers with advertising represent a significant cost savings on average of 42% less to similar offers for services without advertising.

On the downside, Convergence estimates that last year there was a decline of 2.6% of Canadian cable, satellite, telco TV subscribers with declines forecast through 2026. Last year, it’s estimated that Canadian cable, satellite, and telco TV access revenue declined 3% to $7.2 billion. A decline of 3% per annum is expected through 2026.

Looking at Canadian the cord cutter and never corded Household Model as of the end of 2023, Convergence estimates that 6.7 million Canadian households, or 42% of households, did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite, or telco TV access provider. That number is forecast to rise to 50% by the end 2026.

The years of 2019 to 2023 were good ones for Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions, with 2008 and the years prior being the last time Canada saw stronger additions. Convergence forecasts that 2024 to 2026 will continue to see robust additions as well as sustained broadband revenue and average revenue per user growth. Although cable continues to lead on residential broadband market share, telco is on pace to have more residential broadband subs than cable by end of 2025.

The Convergence Research Group is headquartered in Victoria, B.C.