WPP Media has revised its global ad revenue forecast for 2025-2026, expecting slower growth in the face of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
The This Year Next Year report, released Tuesday, predicts that global ad revenue will grow 6% this year, to $1.08 trillion USD. That’s a drop from last December’s projection of 7.7% growth for 2025, due to disruptions to global trade and deglobalization pressures impacting advertising investment.
Looking ahead to 2026, WPP Media predicts a 6.1% uptick globally and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2025 and 2030, once again lower than the previously expected 6.4% CAGR for 2024 to 2029.
The Canadian ad industry ranks 8th in the world, with projected 2025 ad revenue of $22.5 billion USD.
That’s an increase of 5.1% but far short of WPP Media’s previous forecast of 10.5%, which was based on expected continued growth in streaming TV and retail media but was downgraded mainly because of uncertainty due to unpredictable U.S. trade policies, tariffs and counter-tariffs. The report expects Canada’s ad revenue to increase again in 2026 and 2027, with normalized growth in subsequent years, under the assumption that tariffs will level off next year and that new trade partnerships will be established.
Canada’s industry ranks just behind Brazil and ahead of India. The U.S., China and the U.K. are the top three markets.
Highlights of the report include the continued domination of digital advertising, which is expected to account for 73.2% of global ad revenue this year. This number jumps to 81.6% when digital extensions such as streaming TV, DOOH and digital print are added to the mix.
Streaming TV is a key growth channel in Canada, thanks to ad-supported offerings available through Amazon Prime, Paramount+, Netflix, and Disney+, along with sports streamers like Dazn and FAST providers such as PlutoTV, Tubi and Fubo.
Boosts in revenue are also expected to be driven by more live sports streaming partnerships like the one Amazon Prime has with NHL Monday Night Hockey and Netflix has to air select NFL games.
Major Canadian broadcasters continue to offer streaming services to complement their linear channels, in addition to exclusive streaming partnerships such as Rogers Sports & Media teaming up with Disney+, and Bell Media’s Crave becoming the home for HBO and HBO Max content from Warner Bros. Discovery.
Rogers Communications has also nearly completed the acquisition of a 75% share in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE), which owns the Toronto Raptors, the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Toronto Argonauts (CFL), Toronto FC and the Toronto Marlies. In addition, Rogers has extended its current 12-year deal with the NHL for another 12 years, giving the broadcaster national media rights across all platforms – TV, digital and streaming – through the 2037-2038 season.
Total TV, including streaming TV, will grow 2.9%, to $2.6 billion USD, this year in Canada. Streaming is expected to more than offset steady declines in linear TV, growing by 26.1% this year, to $1.1 billion USD.
Other digital media, primarily social media, will account for 38.9% of total ad revenue in 2025. Newspaper ad revenue, including digital extensions, in Canada will be flat in 2025 and 2026 and continue to decline in 2027 to 2030. Magazines and their digital extensions will be flat through 2030. Audio is unlikely to see growth above 1.5% over the next five years — and not likely to surpass $1 billion USD until after 2030, remaining below pre-pandemic revenue.
Other key global highlights in the report:
Retail media continues as one of the fastest growing media segments, expected to make up 18% of all ad revenue by the end of the decade
User-generated content (UGC) is overtaking professional production, with more than half of content-driven advertising this year made up of UGC on digital platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, Kuaishou and Instagram Reels. Global USG revenue is projected to reach $184.9 billion USD in 2025 and more than double by 2030. WPP Media clarifies that the lines are blurry as some UGC platforms, like YouTube, also include professionally produced content. It also notes that its projection excludes China-based companies and revenue but does include TikTok.
TV, including streaming, is expected to grow modestly this year around. Streaming TV will contribute $41.8 billion USD this year and to rocket to $71.9 billion USD by 2030. Search revenue is forecast to grow 7.3% this year; out-of-home (OOH) remains stable; audio advertising remains flat; and the decline in print advertising continues.
