MAGNA’s bi-annual Global Advertising Forecast has revised its June forecast for Canada’s ad market up from 2.9% to 4.4% growth.

This makes Canada the eighth largest market in the world with an ad spend of CAD$22.3 billion in 2023.

Global media investment and research company MAGNA expects Canada’s ad market to increase by 5.1% in 2024 due partly to the return of cyclical events such as the Summer Olympics (Paris mascot pictured) and the World Figure Skating Championships.

Canada’s ad revenue recovery is attributed to digital pure players such as Meta and Google, which account for 70% of total ad sales. That’s a 10% increase to CAD$15.6 billion this year. Social media picked up after a low 1% increase in 2022 to jump by 12% in 2023. Search sales alone increased by 9%.

Cross-platform television ad sales, including both linear TV and streaming video, account for 13% of total ad sales, a 6% drop from last year to CAD$2.9 billion. Events influencing this segment include the U.S. writer’s strike, which is expected to have an impact into 2024.

According to Bell Media, the growth in digital TV advertising revenues partly offset some of the TV ad sales lost due to the writers’ strike. Live sporting events including Super Bowl LVII and the Stanley Cup Playoffs brought increases in viewership, reporting 17.3 million unique viewers watched the Super Bowl, with combined livestreaming viewership up 26% over 2022, while linear TV ratings and streaming subscriptions all increased at Rogers Communications thanks to the Stanley Cup.

Out-of-home ad sales were somewhat flat compared to 2022 with national consumer brands pausing spending, mainly in urban areas that skewed heavily towards transit formats. Cinema is forecast to see year-over-year growth of 25% but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Audio ad sales, both terrestrial and digital, fell 4% in 2023 to CAD$1.5 billion, owing to fewer people commuting to the office during the pandemic. Corus attributes the decline to entertainment, professional services, restaurants, and telecommunications categories, offset by the growth in retail, government/political, beverages, computers, and automotive categories in addition to increased podcasting revenue.

Print ad sales suffered the biggest decline this year, falling by 11% to CAD$1.7 billion.

The MAGNA report says that coming back from the pandemic has not been as easy for traditional media owners as it has been for digital pure players. After the decline in 2022, Meta’s North American ad revenues rose from 6% in the first quarter of 2023 to 11% in the second and 17% in the third quarter.

On the other hand, traditional media owners CBC/Radio-Canada, Corus Entertainment, Quebecor, Bell Media, and Rogers Sports & Media did not experience a rebound in 2023. CBC/RC’s advertising sales were down 14% in the second and third quarters. Corus Entertainment was down 12% in Q2 and 9% in Q3, due to the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and low demand. Bell Media sales were down 5% in Q3, attributed to the advertising recession.

MAGNA is optimistic about 2024 with the expectation of a 5.1% increase in ad sales, compared to its previous 3.8% projection, to CAD$23.4 billion. Pure play digital ad sales are predicted to grow by 8% in 2024, primarily due to search growing, as well as the continued rise of retail media networks. TV ad sales are expected to decrease 5% although the Summer Olympics will offset some of the shortfall.

Next year, Canadian media owners are expecting a decrease in sales. Corus Entertainment expects a drop of 15% to 20% in the first quarter of 2024. Pay TV and broadcast TV are expected to decline by 4% and 5%, respectively. Audio ad sales will fall by 2% next year, while OOH will increase by 10% as it recovers from stagnation in 2023.

Photo: © Paris 2024 – SOP 2023 – Benjamin Boccas